You are a product delivery manager at Amazon. Estimate how many face masks Amazon needs to stock in UK stores during the COVID-19 lockdown period.
- Marie Hamilton
First attempt at answering an estimation question. Please provide feedback
Clarification Questions:
- What Kinds of Masks are we talking about (Disposable, re-usable, N95 etc.)
- Time frame of the stock-up
Assuming disposable masks. Assuming time line is 3 months
Formulae : Number of people using the disposable masks * number of masks used in a month * 3
Population of UK: 65 Million.
Assuming equal split age wise – 0 – 80: 812,500 in each age
Ages 0 – 5 :
- Parents not taking them out and are at home.
- Not wearing masks at all – 4 Million Approximately
Ages 6-21 :
- 50% of them wear masks and half dont. approximately: 6 Million
- Out of the 50% who wear masks, half of them use DIY masks: Approximately: 3 Million
- step out twice a week. 8 times a month.
- Assuming half of them re-use their masks at least one time more:
- Number of masks in 3 months: 4 masks a month * 3 million = 12 Million
Ages 22-60:
- 25% of them dont venture out at all. Remaining masks users: Approximately: 23 Million
- 75% of them wear masks. Approximately: 17 Million
- Some are already sick at home and hence dont venture out.
- The people venture out once a week for errands. 4 times a month. They re-use their masks once. 2 masks in one month. 6 Masks in 3 months
- Out of Assumption is that people delivering groceries or frontline workers will get a high grade N95 masks.
- 25% use DIY masks. Remaining masks users: Approximately: 13 Million
- Number of masks: 13 Million * 6 = 78 Million
Ages 60-80:
- High chances of getting the covid-19, hence 60% are not going out. Approximately: 6 Million
- 25% use DIY masks, surgical masks etc. Approximately: 5 Million
- Go out once every other week. twice a month. 1 mask a month, 3 masks in 3 months
- Number of masks: 15 Million
Stock up for 3 months: 12 + 78 + 15 = 105 Million