What hot new tech product do you think will be completely forgotten about a year from now?
GoogleClarifying Quesitons ==>
Assuming this could be a physical product or a mobile app or anything else.
What does “hot new tech” imply? Product is popular and being sold or users amongst its target users or it is hot in terms of being very widely talked about? è Assume that it is popular in the early adopters and widely being discussed on all media platforms
Assuming that “forgotten” implies that, it will get obsolete/replaced by something new or even if exists will not be a trending topic anymore
What could lead to any product to get obsolete
1) Product not solving any real user problem but being adopted by early adopters just out craze
2) Difficult to enter à Not easy to sign-up
- a) Due to cost
- b) Due to licensing/compliance or any entry restrictions
3) Difficult to participate à Not easy to use
- a) Complicated to use
- b) Not enough support in place
- c) Requires a lot of investment/engagement – Time, Cost etc
4) Easy and simple alternates available in the market
5) No cost for replacement à Not deep enough product moat
Let’s look at few latest trends across various industries and then use the criteria set above to find the hot new product which will be completely forgotten in sometime from now.
I will pick two industries to do the assessment
| Criteria that tick | ||
| Technology | Crypto Currency | · Few cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems such as remittance, being recognized as legit tender for transaction
· With the emergence of various exchanges entry and participation has eased a lot · Product moat is very deep, if a crypto currency is recognized as legal tender for transaction, it will be expensive to revert |
| NFT | · NFT is not solving any real user problem it is merely a collectible; ownership of which is stored on blockchain
· Difficult to enter/ participate — Currently there are very less exchanges offering NFTs since trading NFTs with fiat currency is not possible · Easy to replace — Physical art is still an easy alternative · Product moat is deep since switching from NFT to physical art may be costly/cheaper depending on price of physical art
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| Automobile | Self-driving | · Solving a real problem
· Neither difficult to enter or participate with the emergence of technology · Easy alternatives are available –Ye, conventional cars · Product moat is very deep since there is a major cost of replacing this product |
| Alternate energy | ||
| Conclusion – Basis the assessment, NFT appears to be a candidate that will either be replaced or forgotten in a year or so from now | ||