clarifying question –

1. millennials typically age between 23 – 40.  is my assumption correct? right.

2. can i assume that we are only focusing on millennials who bought home on their own rather than getting handed out from family wealth ? – yes.

thanks. let me think it over .

my structure

1. what % of US population is between 25 – 40.

=> US population – 300M (excluding kids under 18).

assuming 50% of population is above 40 (to account for GenX and boomers).

Millennial population is 150M.

most Americans tend to buy home in their 30s and 40s and and millennials probably lost a few years because of great recessions etc.

let us assume that 50% of the millennials is under 30 and 50% of them above 30.

-> let me assume that 10% of the millennial under 30 to own a home.  -> 10% of 75 – 7.5

-. let me assume that 30% of the millennial above 30 to own a home. -> 30% of 75 -> 21M

total = 21 + 7.5 = 28.5

30M millennials are most likely to own a home in US.

My approach would be:

• Estimate the total number of millenials in the USA
  • I would go with a simple distribution by age, ie assume there are 320 Mill Americans, equally distributed across 80 years of age. Thus 4 million Americans/every year of birth
• Estimate the average price of a home (will assume $300K), and the assumption that a millenial will have to save a 10% down payment to put an offer (ie 30K). At this point the estimate is about the number of millenials who have saved $30K
  • Assume the average American starts earning at 22, and makes $50K/yr
  • Saves 10% every year towards homeownership, netting $5K/yr
  • Thus, takes them 6 years atleast to save
• So, technically, Americans from age 28-39 can purchase a home
• Hence 44Mill. millenials who have atleast $5K to put down on a home. I would also halve it assuming folks get into a partnership or union. Hence, 22 million millenials who have the purchasing power to buy a home
• Of the 5 millenial friends I have, 2 own a home. The rest choose not to buy
• Assuming 40% of millenials who can purchase a home choose to purchase a home, I would estimate approx 9 million millenials in American own a home

Number of Millennials that own the house:

(Number of Millenials) * ( % Owning House)

((Total US Population) * ( % of Millennials)) * (% Owning House)

Consider total US population be 320 Million and following can be percentage breakdown of population:

0 – 21: 25%

22 – 40: 25% (Millennials)

41 – 60: 25%

60 – 80: 20%

80 – : 5%

((320 Million) * (25% of Population) ) * (% Owning House)

Population of Millennials: 80 Million

(80 Million) * (% Owning House)

What can be millennials doing right now:

1. College: 20%

2. First Few years of Job: 30%

3. Experienced Professional: 50%

Characteristics of anyone owing a house:

1. Stable Job

2. Stable relationship

2. Good Income

What % of millennials own a house:

1. College: 20% * 10% = 2%

2. First Few years of Job: 30% * 20%= 6%

3. Experienced Professional: 50% * 50% = 25%

% Millennials Owning House: 2%+6%+25%=33%

Number of Millennials that own the house: