1. Clarify
   1. What do we consider as “bottles”? Assume: normal, typical sized tall bottles
   2. Are we including imports as well or only American-produced shampoo bottles? Assume: all, in general
   3. Are we including all sales of shampoo bottles or just personal purchases? (Ex. hotels) Assume: in general sales of shampoo bottles (all)
2. Assumptions
   1. An average shampoo bottle can be used in a month, based on personal experience
      1. Long-haired people may shampoo every other day, so average one bottle in 2 months
   2. An individual with short hair uses an average of 12 shampoo bottles in a year, and ann individual with long hair uses an average of 6 shampoo bottles in a year
   3. Assuming long hair (L) and short hair (S) population is 50/50. US population: 300 million; 150m L, 150m S
   4. Based on assumption, 150m12 + 150m6 = 1800m + 900m = 2700m
   5. This seems like a very high number – I think I’m assuming that every individual shampoos regularly. Therefore, I need to breakdown a little further on types of people:
      1. People who regularly washes (daily): 50% (150m)
      2. People who does not daily wash (avg every other day): 40% (120m)
      3. People who does not shampoo normally (avg every 4 days): 10% (30m)
   6. 150m12 + 1206 + 30m*3 = 1800m+720m+90m = 2610m
   7. People who go internationally a lot, or use business suites (hotels) a lot, or people don’t buy shampoo bottles, so # of shampoo bottles goes down. I’ll assume about 20% of the US population stays regularly in hotels or goes internationally, so I’ll subtract 2610m/1.2 = 2175m FINAL ANSWER

So I am going to follow a structure

• Ask questions/ seek clarification
• Spell out assumptions and Constraints
• Lay down publicly available facts
• Approach/ Equation
• Estimate the equation parts
• Calculate
• Critique

1. Questions/clarifications:
   1. Are we focussed on any Geography ?
   2. Do you have any duration in mind ?
   3. Demographics in focus ?
   4. Usage ?
2. Assumptions/ Constraints
   1. USA
   2. Lets calculate this for a month
   3. Anyone that needs Shampoo: I would like to focus on a family unit if you have any other preference in mind please let me know.
   4. Family use
   5. The USA is a developed country and there are no gaps in demand vs sale. Meaning if someone has a demand of shampoo it will be fulfilled
   6. 8 ounces average bottle
3. Publicly available facts
   1. Population of USA =300 million
   2. Average family size =3
   3. # of families =100 million
4. Approach/ Equation
   1. X= Bottle of Shampoo required 1 family over a month
   2. Y= # families actually using shampoo
   3. Shampoo bottle sale = X*Y
5. Estimate
   1. Let’s Calculate X

High usage=4 bottles Low usage= 1 bottle Average usage= 2 bottles No usage= 0 bottles

1. Lets Calculate Y

Total families = 100 million High usage= 0.1 (4 million)= 0.4 million Low usage= 0.1 (4 million)= 0.4 million Average usage= 0.7(4million)=2.8 million No usage= 0.1 (4 million)= 0.4 million

1. Calculate

0.44+0.41+2.82+0.40 million 1.6+0.4+5.2+0 million bottles = 7.2 million shampoo bottles monthly for family use in USA Critique:

• We could have done better segmentation, now that i am thinking more i am thinking another way to segment could have been on Sex (male, female)
• Another thing to account for in sales could have been non-families usage
• Another thing to account for could have been sales for hotels/ business/ airbnb etc.

Shampoo bottles used in the US per year

Assuming used by American Citizens in Daily Life / No Commercial usage

Population – 300 M

Let’s assume there is a 10% population that can’t use shampoo – Either they can’t afford it – Or they are bald – Or Infants

Remaining Population – 270 M

Male (Approx) – 60% = 192 M Famale (Approx) – 40% = 108 M

Assumption —> There could be many sizes for a shampoo bottle in the market, so I am not taking that into account. I’ll only pick no. of bottles used by American, irrespective of the size.

For ease of calculation will do the Per Month calculation First and will multiply the number by 12 at the end.

Male (192 M) – kids –> 30% – Adults — 30% – Old –> 30% – Don’t use shampoo (by choice) –> 10% – 192*.1 == 19.2

Total Male Uses shampoo —> 192 – 19.2 (19 approx) —> 173 M [Same calculation would go for the women]

FeMale (108 M) – kids — > 30% – Adults –> 30% – Old –> 30% – Don’t use shampoo (by choice) –> 10%

Total Female Uses shampoo —> 108 – 10.8 (11 approx) –> 97 M

Male – kids –> 30% – 192*.3 == 57.5 (Approx) – Assuming kid’s don’t purchase separate bottle – Adults — 30% – 192*.3 == 57.5 (Approx) – Assuming male adult purchase shampoo once in 2 months – Old –> 30% – 192*.3 == 57.5 (Approx) – Assuming an old male purchases shampoo once in 2 months

Consumption by Male population / Month —> 2(57.5) * .5 —> 57.5 M bottles per month

Females – kids — > 30% – 108*.3 == 32.5 (Approx) – Assuming kid’s don’t purchase separate bottle – Adults –> 30% – 108*.3 == 32.5 (Approx) – Assuming female adult purchases shampoo once every month – Old –> 30% – 108*.3 == 32.5 (Approx) – Assuming female old purchases shampoo once every month

Comsumption by Feale population / Month —> 2(32.5) * 1—> 65 M bottles per month

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Total Shampoo bottles per month – 65 M + 57.5 M —> 122.5 M

Also, let’s assume on an average people don’t shampoo every day in a year = 30 days/person = 1 Month

Total consumption in a year === 122.5 * (12-1) —-> 1347.5 —-> 1.3 B Approx

How many shampoo bottles are sold in the US annually?

Assumption: Shampoo for both male and female consumers

Population of US (330Mn)

Considering 50:50 Urban Rural breakdown Urban: 165Mn Rural: 165Mn

Considering only 10% of Rural consumers will be using shampoo, which gives 16.5Mn people

Urban: 165Mn Considering 50:50 Male Female breakdown Male: 82.5Mn Male consumers using shampoo: 60% = 49.5Mn Male consumers not using shampoo: 40% = 33Mn

Female: 82.5Mn Female consumers using shampoo: 80% = 66Mn Female consumers not using shampoo: 20% = 16.5Mn

Total no. of people using shampoo = 16.5 + 49.5 + 66 = 132Mn

We can break each category on the no. of days and qty used, However, lets consider people use shampoo 4 days a week and 10ml is used per wash

Total amt of shampoo used = (132Mn x 4 days x 10ml)/(7 days x 1000ml) =0.75Mn ltr/week

1 year has 52 weeks. Thus, 0.75 x52 = 39 Mn ltr / year i.e. 39Mn One ltr bottles

Average cost of 1lt shampoo bottle in US is $4 Thus 39Mn x $4 = $156Mn