Meta (Facebook)’s DAU is decreasing 15% per week from the last 3 weeks. Find out why.
- Luis Neilson
Clarification of the metric on how DAU is calculated? Should I assume as users coming on the FB platform everyday and spending a specfic amount of time, say 45 seconds OR taking 1 engagement action like post/like/comment/share OR both?
First thing I’d like to get ask some more clarification questions that can be easily found by our internal data. Once we have that then I will come up with some hypothesis, how to test those in order to diagnose the problem. How does that sound?
- Look at is whether it is sudden or progressive — It looks like it is progressive as it has been happening for over 3 weeks.
- Is it seasonal? Say around holiday time when people are mostly spending time outdoors? — Assume first time.
- Next I want to check whether there was any change in the query logic feeding into the metric or change in backend tables/infrastructure that is not logging the data correctly to rule out any data quality issues
- Check whether there is any specific market the drop is coming from or is it globally? — Say globally
- Check whether any specific age group? — Say young adults (age 18-29)
- Any specific platform (mobile/desktop) or both are equal? — Say both equal
- Any specific OS (android/iOS) or both drops equal? — Say both equal
- Decompose the metric to see where the drop is coming from:
- DAU = Existing + New – Churned
- Say existing
- DAU = Existing + New – Churned
- Internal product changes:
- Made any significant changes because of which we are noticing Primacy affect, that is, change aversion and users are resisting that change? — No
- Doing any sort of AB testing that is causing people friction to come back to platform? — No
- Any bad PR about Facebook, say accounts compromised or any legal issues because of which people are boycotting FB — No
- Cannibalizing: Spike in DAU in last 3 weeks on Insta/Whatsapp? –Noticed spike in Insta
- External:
- Hard to get this data but is this a social media trend going on where people trying to be more active outside social media — Don’t know
- Any new/existing product in the market where people are spending more time? — Don’t have external data
- Cohort by age group. Say young teens are spending more time on Snapchat or young adults are spending more time on LinkedIn.
- Hypothesis & confirming:
- Young adults have started using more Instagram. This can be found out by looking at the DAU, avg time spent on Instagram.